Thoughtful stories —
Modern thinking to guide your way.
Market Ethos
Market Ethos
May 16 - 20227 min readWhen Will It End?
When will this price correction be over, and are we headed towards a recession? After sharing our thoughts on those questions so many times over the past week, here are answers from those meetings, with some charts to help illuminate....
Market Ethos
May 09 - 20225 min readTime Slows During Corrections
We are deep in a correction that encapsulates multiple asset classes. And it is not just weakness, the daily gyrations are truly breathtaking. Over the past ten trading sessions, the U.S. S&P 500 has seen five sessions with daily returns +/- 2%....
Market Ethos
Macro Commentary
May 02 - 202210 min readTake a Breath
Following numerous conversations with both investors and advisors, a common theme has emerged, which we will paraphrase as follows: “We own bonds for some income but mainly to provide a stabilizer for the portfolio during periods of equity market weakness....
Market Ethos
Apr 27 - 20228 min readCorrection Goes Warp Speed
Markets have been absorbing a lot of bad news so far in 2022. The Fed went from the market’s bestie to that ex-friend who like to run away with your punch bowl....
Market Ethos
Apr 25 - 20226 min readThe Loonie: It’s Stronger Than You Think
The CAD has remained relatively rangebound from 78-81 cents over the past quarters. But what has really been happening is that both the US dollar (USD) and the Canadian loonie (CAD) have been appreciating together, materially....
Market Ethos
Apr 18 - 20226 min readEmerging Markets: How Much, If Any, for Portfolios
The long term or secular reasons to have an emerging market (EM, or developing market, if you prefer) allocation within a portfolio are pretty sound....
Market Ethos
Apr 11 - 20225 min readPeak Hawkishness
On January 1st, the market was pricing in a Fed Funds rate of 0.8% for the end of 2022 or about three rate hikes over the year of the 25bps tenor. Fast forward to today, the futures now price in 2.5% at year end or eight to nine hikes....
Market Ethos
Mar 28 - 20226 min readBuy the Dip (In Bonds?)
When investing, whether you’re a portfolio manager, advisor, or individual, nothing is as rewarding as making the right call and then being proven right by the market....
Market Ethos
Mar 21 - 20226 min readRates, We Have Lift Off
After months of jawboning and telegraphing the pending move, the world’s largest central bank finally raised rates. ...
Market Ethos
Mar 14 - 20226 min readThis Is Chess, Not Checkers
When big news happens, markets move. And this year there has been no shortage of big news from the pandemic loosening its hold, yields rising, inflation spiking, central banks pivoting and, the biggest news, Russian invading Ukraine....
Market Ethos
Mar 07 - 202213 min readPortfolio Construction Insights
How do you build and manage multi-asset portfolios? This may sound like an innocuous question but given this is literally what all of us do in the finance industry, to one extent or another, it is kind of an important question....
Market Ethos
Mar 01 - 20226 min readIt Is a Correction
The markets, which had been gently inching towards correction territory, got pushed over the threshold on the news of Russia invading Ukraine. The obvious reaction to this unfortunate news hit the markets overnight....
Market Ethos
Feb 22 - 20224 min readGreat Fundamentals, For Now
Over the past few years, a common chorus has been that fundamentals just don’t matter in this current market environment. It is all about the macro, the Fed’s balance sheet, liquidity, money flows, and performance chasing....
Market Ethos
Feb 15 - 20227 min read2%
The 2% is actually about the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaching this threshold for the first time since mid 2019....
Market Ethos
Feb 09 - 202216 min readThe Year Everything Changed
“The trend is your friend” is a popular adage and for good reason. Imagine you are driving on a straight highway and all of a sudden you’re surrounded by fog. Of course, you slow down but you also likely assume the road will continue in the same straight line you’ve been driving down....
Market Ethos
Jan 31 - 20226 min readBubbles, Biases, and Broken Dreams
So far, we’ve had quite the rollercoaster of emotions for investors this year, with many markets on the verge or even dipping their toe into correction territory....
Market Ethos
Jan 24 - 20225 min readIs Growth Over?
The rotation out of Growth and into Value as we started 2022 has been, well, violent. As of Thursday, January 20, the S&P 500 Growth Index was down 9.6% so far this year while the Value version of the index is off a mere 1.8%. ...
Market Ethos
Jan 17 - 20228 min readWhat Is Wrong With Gold?
If you hit the rewind button back to a year ago, gold was trading at $1,850/oz, and the iShares TSX Gold ETF was about $19.50....
Market Ethos
Jan 10 - 20225 min readHow Does a Bull Run End?
Okay, if we knew the answer our residence would likely be on a nice warm private island somewhere. The fact is market advances that roll into corrections or bear markets don’t follow a pre-determined pattern or playbook....
Market Ethos
Jan 04 - 20229 min readA 2021 Reminiscence: Not Your Typical Year, Not Your Typical Market
While 2021 certainly had a lot of twists and turns ranging from a pandemic that won’t go away, to inflation, to meme stocks, it ended up being a rather pleasant year for investors with many equity indices advancing over 20%. ...
Market Ethos
Macro Commentary
Dec 14 - 202125 min readPurpose 2022 Outlook: The Long Road Back to the New Normal
As the end of 2021 nears, it was clearly a win for investors. And while the pandemic retains it grip on humanity, overall, economies, companies, and behaviours have adapted relatively well. 2022 looks like it will be a more challenging and uncertain year, as some trends are poised to change....
Market Ethos
Dec 06 - 20214 min readBuy the Dip Is Alive and Well
Over the past year, equity investors would be hard pressed to find anything to complain about. Even without dividends, the S&P 500 is up 24%, the TSX has risen 19% and global equities are up 18%....
Market Ethos
Nov 29 - 20215 min readCapitalizing on Tax Loss Selling
‘Tis the season for tax-loss selling: an annual rite of passage for both seasoned investors as well as investing neophytes. When the days get darker and the mornings a little chillier, something curious begins to occur....
Market Ethos
Nov 22 - 20216 min readActive vs Passive - So, You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance
So far in 2021, the S&P 500 and the TSX are both up about 25%. A truly remarkable year for equity markets that were fuelled by everything from fiscal spending, MONEY PRINTING, economic recovery, the retreat of a pandemic, and a sprinkling of inflation....
Market Ethos
Nov 15 - 20215 min readNot All Dividends Are the Same
There is little doubt that at the core of most every Canadian’s portfolio is a healthy allocation to dividend-paying equities. And for many good reasons. Dividends enjoy preferential tax treatment, notably Canadian dividend-paying companies....
Market Ethos
Nov 09 - 20215 min readDraining the Punchbowl
For months now, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been hinting that the ‘taper’ of its quantitative easing (QE) program would begin, and last week the hints turned into an operation plan. Monthly bond-buying programs that are running at $120 billion per month will be reduced by $15 billion per month....
Market Ethos
Oct 22 - 20216 min readG N' R - Rocking Markets
No, this is not a homage to one of the great hard rock bands of all-time, but we will do our best to work ‘welcome to the jungle’ into this Ethos. Instead, we are talking about little ‘g’ and little ‘r’ – two of the most important inputs for market valuations....
Market Ethos
Oct 15 - 20215 min readLabour Intensity, Wage Pressure, and Why People Are Quitting Their Jobs in Droves
Inflation sucks. It is essentially a tax on those consuming goods or services, as things simply cost more. Even worse, it is a regressive tax given lower income/wealth consumers tend to spend a higher portion of their income. ...
Market Ethos
Oct 08 - 20216 min readRarefied Air
The market advance over the past year has truly turned a lot of heads, in a good way. After the initial bear and bounce triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, markets went on a phenomenal run....
Market Ethos
Sep 27 - 20216 min readQ3 Earnings Season Is No Cake Walk
The life blood of the equity market is the earnings generated by the companies in the index. Sometimes the market pays more for these earnings, like these days, sometimes less....
Market Ethos
Sep 20 - 20216 min readWelcome to the Backside of the Inflation Spike
Okay, even an armchair economist knew that used car prices, airfares, and car rentals couldn’t continue to go up by double digits month after month for very long. These were some of the bigger contributing categories to the spike in the U.S....
Market Ethos
Sep 14 - 20214 min read