Market Ethos
Aug 15 - 20226 min read

Forecasters’ Folly – Insight Versus Inanity

Investors often look for a playbook, a way to help guide them through times of uncertainty. History is often used to write that playbook. However, markets are just like any sport – rules change, equipment improves, athletes progress, and what worked best in the past may not always apply....

Derek Benedet

byDerek Benedet

Market Ethos
Aug 08 - 20227 min read

Why?

The tech-tilted NASDAQ has risen +20% since mid-June. Still materially down on the year, but a 20% rise over seven weeks is both significant in the size of the advance and duration....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Aug 02 - 202212 min read

What Butterflies Have to Do With the Recent Market Rally

One would think that with CPI rising, the Fed hiking rates by 75bps, the Bank of Canada hiking even higher by 100bps, the U.S. GDP posting a second consecutive quarter of negative growth, and the recession chorus growing louder, things are looking dire....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jul 25 - 20225 min read

Stars Aligning for Japan

The often-cited investment adage that stocks go up in the long run seems to apply just about everywhere except Japan. The Nikkei index is still below its peak in 1989, over 30 years ago. ...

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jul 18 - 20226 min read

Emerging Markets – Not Now, Maybe Soon

Emerging markets (EM) have a very strong allure for inclusion into the international equity component of a portfolio. ...

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jul 11 - 20226 min read

To Hedge or Not to Hedge?

Even during these troubled times for the markets with equities down, yields up, inflation in everyone’s face, lost luggage, and now recession grumblings, still the most recurring question during client events remains the Canadian dollar....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jul 04 - 202225 min read

2nd Half Better Than the 1st

It is halftime for 2022, and if this were a football match, the markets are in dire need of a great inspiration speech before retaking the pitch....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jun 27 - 20225 min read

There’s Good News and Bad News

Would you like the good news first or the bad news? Sorry, it's a trick question as the news for both is the same: the economy is slowing down. It's good news as it will help the inflation pressures; however, the bad news is too much slowing, and we have a whole new set of problems....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jun 20 - 20228 min read

What a Week

One thing is for certain, if you stopped paying attention to the market for a few days a lot has changed. ...

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jun 13 - 20224 min read

Inflating

Well, if you thought peak inflation had been reached, the May U.S. Consumer Price Index certainly did not show that to be the case. And the markets are not a fan. U.S. CPI rose 1.0% in May, which brought the one-year tally to +8.6%....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jun 06 - 202211 min read

The Upside Down

Bad news can elicit a positive market response while good news brings weakness. This may very well be the situation today as a confluence of factors has created this kind of upside down market....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
May 30 - 20226 min read

Don’t Fret QT, It Is the Announcement that Hurts

The U.S. Federal Reserve is about to commence quantitative tightening (QT). For those not all up to speed on quantitative maneuvers by central banks, QT and quantitative easing (QE) are two tools central banks have used extensively over the past decade or so....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
May 24 - 20226 min read

Fears Moving from Inflation to Recession

Listening to the news, a political debate, or overhearing a conversation on the bus (yes, I ride the bus), the one recurring topic appears to be inflation....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
May 16 - 20227 min read

When Will It End?

When will this price correction be over, and are we headed towards a recession? After sharing our thoughts on those questions so many times over the past week, here are answers from those meetings, with some charts to help illuminate....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
May 09 - 20225 min read

Time Slows During Corrections

We are deep in a correction that encapsulates multiple asset classes. And it is not just weakness, the daily gyrations are truly breathtaking. Over the past ten trading sessions, the U.S. S&P 500 has seen five sessions with daily returns +/- 2%....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Macro Commentary
May 02 - 202210 min read

Take a Breath

Following numerous conversations with both investors and advisors, a common theme has emerged, which we will paraphrase as follows: “We own bonds for some income but mainly to provide a stabilizer for the portfolio during periods of equity market weakness....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Apr 27 - 20228 min read

Correction Goes Warp Speed

Markets have been absorbing a lot of bad news so far in 2022. The Fed went from the market’s bestie to that ex-friend who like to run away with your punch bowl....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Apr 25 - 20226 min read

The Loonie: It’s Stronger Than You Think

The CAD has remained relatively rangebound from 78-81 cents over the past quarters. But what has really been happening is that both the US dollar (USD) and the Canadian loonie (CAD) have been appreciating together, materially....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Apr 18 - 20226 min read

Emerging Markets: How Much, If Any, for Portfolios

The long term or secular reasons to have an emerging market (EM, or developing market, if you prefer) allocation within a portfolio are pretty sound....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Apr 11 - 20225 min read

Peak Hawkishness

On January 1st, the market was pricing in a Fed Funds rate of 0.8% for the end of 2022 or about three rate hikes over the year of the 25bps tenor. Fast forward to today, the futures now price in 2.5% at year end or eight to nine hikes....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Mar 28 - 20226 min read

Buy the Dip (In Bonds?)

When investing, whether you’re a portfolio manager, advisor, or individual, nothing is as rewarding as making the right call and then being proven right by the market....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Mar 21 - 20226 min read

Rates, We Have Lift Off

After months of jawboning and telegraphing the pending move, the world’s largest central bank finally raised rates. ...

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Mar 14 - 20226 min read

This Is Chess, Not Checkers

When big news happens, markets move. And this year there has been no shortage of big news from the pandemic loosening its hold, yields rising, inflation spiking, central banks pivoting and, the biggest news, Russian invading Ukraine....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Mar 07 - 202213 min read

Portfolio Construction Insights

How do you build and manage multi-asset portfolios? This may sound like an innocuous question but given this is literally what all of us do in the finance industry, to one extent or another, it is kind of an important question....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Mar 01 - 20226 min read

It Is a Correction

The markets, which had been gently inching towards correction territory, got pushed over the threshold on the news of Russia invading Ukraine. The obvious reaction to this unfortunate news hit the markets overnight....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Feb 22 - 20224 min read

Great Fundamentals, For Now

Over the past few years, a common chorus has been that fundamentals just don’t matter in this current market environment. It is all about the macro, the Fed’s balance sheet, liquidity, money flows, and performance chasing....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Feb 15 - 20227 min read

2%

The 2% is actually about the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaching this threshold for the first time since mid 2019....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Feb 09 - 202216 min read

The Year Everything Changed

“The trend is your friend” is a popular adage and for good reason. Imagine you are driving on a straight highway and all of a sudden you’re surrounded by fog. Of course, you slow down but you also likely assume the road will continue in the same straight line you’ve been driving down....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jan 31 - 20226 min read

Bubbles, Biases, and Broken Dreams

So far, we’ve had quite the rollercoaster of emotions for investors this year, with many markets on the verge or even dipping their toe into correction territory....

Derek Benedet

byDerek Benedet

Market Ethos
Jan 24 - 20225 min read

Is Growth Over?

The rotation out of Growth and into Value as we started 2022 has been, well, violent. As of Thursday, January 20, the S&P 500 Growth Index was down 9.6% so far this year while the Value version of the index is off a mere 1.8%. ...

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jan 17 - 20228 min read

What Is Wrong With Gold?

If you hit the rewind button back to a year ago, gold was trading at $1,850/oz, and the iShares TSX Gold ETF was about $19.50....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jan 10 - 20225 min read

How Does a Bull Run End?

Okay, if we knew the answer our residence would likely be on a nice warm private island somewhere. The fact is market advances that roll into corrections or bear markets don’t follow a pre-determined pattern or playbook....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Jan 04 - 20229 min read

A 2021 Reminiscence: Not Your Typical Year, Not Your Typical Market

While 2021 certainly had a lot of twists and turns ranging from a pandemic that won’t go away, to inflation, to meme stocks, it ended up being a rather pleasant year for investors with many equity indices advancing over 20%. ...

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Macro Commentary
Dec 14 - 202125 min read

Purpose 2022 Outlook: The Long Road Back to the New Normal

As the end of 2021 nears, it was clearly a win for investors. And while the pandemic retains it grip on humanity, overall, economies, companies, and behaviours have adapted relatively well. 2022 looks like it will be a more challenging and uncertain year, as some trends are poised to change....

Purpose Investments

byPurpose Investments

Market Ethos
Dec 06 - 20214 min read

Buy the Dip Is Alive and Well

Over the past year, equity investors would be hard pressed to find anything to complain about. Even without dividends, the S&P 500 is up 24%, the TSX has risen 19% and global equities are up 18%....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Nov 29 - 20215 min read

Capitalizing on Tax Loss Selling

‘Tis the season for tax-loss selling: an annual rite of passage for both seasoned investors as well as investing neophytes. When the days get darker and the mornings a little chillier, something curious begins to occur....

Derek Benedet

byDerek Benedet

Market Ethos
Nov 22 - 20216 min read

Active vs Passive - So, You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance

So far in 2021, the S&P 500 and the TSX are both up about 25%. A truly remarkable year for equity markets that were fuelled by everything from fiscal spending, MONEY PRINTING, economic recovery, the retreat of a pandemic, and a sprinkling of inflation....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Nov 15 - 20215 min read

Not All Dividends Are the Same

There is little doubt that at the core of most every Canadian’s portfolio is a healthy allocation to dividend-paying equities. And for many good reasons. Dividends enjoy preferential tax treatment, notably Canadian dividend-paying companies....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Nov 09 - 20215 min read

Draining the Punchbowl

For months now, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been hinting that the ‘taper’ of its quantitative easing (QE) program would begin, and last week the hints turned into an operation plan. Monthly bond-buying programs that are running at $120 billion per month will be reduced by $15 billion per month....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Oct 22 - 20216 min read

G N' R - Rocking Markets

No, this is not a homage to one of the great hard rock bands of all-time, but we will do our best to work ‘welcome to the jungle’ into this Ethos. Instead, we are talking about little ‘g’ and little ‘r’ – two of the most important inputs for market valuations....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Oct 15 - 20215 min read

Labour Intensity, Wage Pressure, and Why People Are Quitting Their Jobs in Droves

Inflation sucks. It is essentially a tax on those consuming goods or services, as things simply cost more. Even worse, it is a regressive tax given lower income/wealth consumers tend to spend a higher portion of their income. ...

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Oct 08 - 20216 min read

Rarefied Air

The market advance over the past year has truly turned a lot of heads, in a good way. After the initial bear and bounce triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, markets went on a phenomenal run....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Sep 27 - 20216 min read

Q3 Earnings Season Is No Cake Walk

The life blood of the equity market is the earnings generated by the companies in the index. Sometimes the market pays more for these earnings, like these days, sometimes less....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Sep 20 - 20216 min read

Welcome to the Backside of the Inflation Spike

Okay, even an armchair economist knew that used car prices, airfares, and car rentals couldn’t continue to go up by double digits month after month for very long. These were some of the bigger contributing categories to the spike in the U.S....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger

Market Ethos
Sep 14 - 20214 min read

Modern Portfolio Theory, We Have a Problem

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) sits at the core of just about every portfolio construction process. While developed some 70 years ago, the core beliefs of MPT remain as applicable today as they did before....

Craig Basinger

byCraig Basinger