Thoughtful stories —
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Market Ethos
Macro Commentary
Apr 01 - 20245 min readResilient Markets and Tempering Expectations
As always, the market will ‘do what makes the most people wrong.’ Looking back at strategy reports from a few months ago, the consensus for the year was notably muted. Most had been expecting single-digit equity returns and a more cautious economic outlook. ...
Macro Commentary
Mar 01 - 20245 min readThe Elusive Broad Market Rally
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Apparently, two months ago, the calendar flipped in December to begin a new year; however, looking at financial markets, you could be forgiven for thinking that 2023 has just continued into its 15th month....
Macro Commentary
Feb 05 - 20244 min readAre the Markets Putting the Cart Before the Horse?
Looking at equity markets, the same names continue to lead the market higher. The so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ may have lost a member post the awful Tesla quarter, but the group continues to head higher on optimism around AI growth....
Macro Commentary
Jan 03 - 20245 min readA Year of Market Resiliency
As we put the finishing touches on 2023, it’s instructive to look back at the year to observe how different it turned out from what most were predicting. ...
Op-Ed
Macro Commentary
Dec 20 - 202311 min readIt’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Market Recap Time: 2023 Edition
It’s that time of year again where we recruit a handful of our favourite portfolio managers and ask them to reflect on the past year and what they anticipate for the year ahead....
Macro Commentary
Dec 04 - 20234 min readNovember to the Rescue
After a quiet summer, volatility picked up in August, and markets fell under the stress of uncertainty through September and October. But just as market sentiment fell into extreme bearish levels, along came the seasonally strongest month of the year, November, to save the day....
Macro Commentary
Nov 06 - 20235 min readDarkest Before the Dawn
Market participants have learned to expect an increase in volatility during the months of August through October, and this year didn’t disappoint. While many indicators haven’t worked as well lately, seasonality seems to be working out well as an indicator....
Macro Commentary
Oct 03 - 20235 min readHard Landing Not Priced In
Market history is full of times of stress in the third quarter, and everyone knows of the market crashes that have occurred in the past. But most of the time, this stress is centred on the equity market and the result of market excesses....
Macro Commentary
Sep 05 - 20235 min readIs Now the Time for a September Stumble?
Once again, August lived up to its well-earned reputation for volatility. Even with a late month rally, the S&P500 posted its first monthly decline since February....
Macro Commentary
Aug 02 - 20235 min readDog Days of Summer
With the dog days of summer thoroughly entrenched, for those that haven’t looked at their portfolios for the last few weeks, it's good to know that not much has changed....
Macro Commentary
Jul 05 - 20234 min readAre Markets Climbing the Wall of Worry?
The first half of the year has been much different than most had predicted. After an awful 2022, equity investors’ mood was sour and most were expecting that this year would be a continuation of the downdraft....
Macro Commentary
Jun 05 - 20234 min readNow Is Not the Time to Chase Hot Trends
To say May was a tale of two markets doesn’t fully paint the picture of just how wide the divergence in returns was for the month. As AI hype fueled the mega-cap tech stocks higher, the rest of the market languished over concerns about the strength of the economy and banking system....
Macro Commentary
May 02 - 20234 min readSell in May and Go Away?
Seasoned investors know that financial markets have a habit of doing what will make the most people wrong....
Macro Commentary
Apr 03 - 20234 min readCould March Market Be the Calm Before the Storm?
Equity markets started 2023 with a bang. The technology stocks that suffered over the past year, as bond yields increased and pressured multiples, were able to lead the charge higher as investors began to anticipate the peak in central bank tightening....
Macro Commentary
Op-Ed
Mar 13 - 20233 min readDoes Silicon Valley Bank’s Demise Bring the End to Rate Hikes?
Over the past year, we’ve seen the most aggressive tightening cycle from central banks in history – with the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee alone taking the Fed funds rate from zero to 4.5% in one year. ...
Macro Commentary
Mar 02 - 20234 min readBeware the Ides of March
February saw equity markets reverse much of their gains from the start of the year. And now it looks like the debate investors were having around the health of the January bounce are being resolved in favour of the Bears....
Macro Commentary
Feb 02 - 20235 min readWe're Not Out of the Woods
As January ended with one of the strongest monthly returns we have seen in years, the biggest question on everyone's mind is: what is fact, and what is fiction?...
Macro Commentary
Jan 03 - 20237 min readA 2023 Outlook: Preparing for the Unexpected
Many investors consider 2022 to have been an investing disaster. But our Purpose CIO sees it a bit differently. Read his thoughts and explore his outlook for the year ahead....
Op-Ed
Macro Commentary
Dec 15 - 202215 min readIt’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Market Recap Time: 2022 Edition
In what is a time-honoured tradition here at Purpose, we recruited a handful of our favourite portfolio managers and asked them to reflect on 2022 and what they anticipate for the year ahead....
Macro Commentary
Dec 06 - 20224 min readCelebrating the Holidays with a November Bounce
The six-month period after the U.S. midterm elections has historically been one of the best times for equity returns. But coming up to this year, there was concern if this would play out. Well, so far so good, as November was broadly a positive month across risk assets....
Macro Commentary
Nov 01 - 20224 min readWas That the Bottom of This Bear Market?
After seeing markets fall dramatically through the month of September, investors entered October with a high level of caution and expectations for further weakness....
Macro Commentary
Oct 04 - 20224 min readHanging on by a Thread
Given the speed at which interest rates are moving, we all had to know something was going to break. And by the end of September, it seemed like a lot of things were on the verge of breaking....
Macro Commentary
Sep 01 - 20224 min readDon’t Be a Hero
For many, flipping the calendar over to September is centered around the kids heading back to school; however, for investors, it’s also good opportunity to take a look at your portfolio and make sure you are set up for some volatility....
Macro Commentary
Aug 03 - 20224 min readA Market Bounce Does Not Mean We Are Out of the Woods
Equity markets climbed the wall of worry in July to help recover a great deal of the loses from an ugly June that saw many markets down 5-10%. As much as anything else, the reason for this bounce really comes down to positioning....
Macro Commentary
Jul 05 - 20225 min readOh How the Tides Have Turned
In hindsight it seems obvious that the good times would end. In the last two years, it had become too easy for investors. The record amounts of cash sent out by governments and central banks to fend off the pandemic’s economic impact found its way into every investible asset class....
Macro Commentary
Jun 01 - 20225 min readThe Summer of Bear Markets, QT, and The Great Rotation
The S&P 500 officially fell into bear market territory during the month of May, although a late month bounce allowed it to finish the month only slightly down from April. Regardless of the finish, the tone of the market has changed, and it doesn’t appear to be calming down anytime soon....
Macro Commentary
May 03 - 20224 min readSo Much for Seasonality
Looking at historical performance, April is usually one of the stronger months of the year. But like many other things that normally happen, in the Bizarro World that is 2022, it wasn’t the case this time....
Market Ethos
Macro Commentary
May 02 - 202210 min readTake a Breath
Following numerous conversations with both investors and advisors, a common theme has emerged, which we will paraphrase as follows: “We own bonds for some income but mainly to provide a stabilizer for the portfolio during periods of equity market weakness....
Macro Commentary
Apr 05 - 202213 min read2022 Correction #1 Complete, Now What?
This year “March Madness” wasn’t just limited to basketball. When looking at the capital market performance for the first quarter of 2022, the price behaviour of bonds, stocks, and commodities rivalled the madness....
Macro Commentary
Apr 04 - 20225 min readMarch Market Madness and Potential April Showers
The tournament, so-nicknamed because of its tradition of bracket-breaking upsets and Cinderella teams, was nothing compared with the March madness of bonds, stocks, and commodities this year....
Macro Commentary
Mar 01 - 20224 min readRate Hikes, Russia, and Navigating Uncertainty
Many investors entered 2022 with the expectation that the markets would be more volatile this year, anticipating that central banks would begin to remove pandemic stimulus measures and normalize interest rates....
Macro Commentary
Feb 02 - 20224 min readThe Markets They Are a-Changin'
Well, that happened fast. Coming into the year, consensus was that times were changing, and volatility was coming. As the world begins to look past the pandemic, it was widely expected that the stance of central banks would turn from dovish to hawkish and be less market friendly. ...
Macro Commentary
Op-Ed
Jan 20 - 20225 min readTop 4 Market Predictions for 2022
After years like the last two, it’s hard to forecast what may happen one week from today, never mind what will happen one year from today—but there are a handful of key trends we believe will act as market catalysts for the year ahead....
Macro Commentary
Jan 04 - 20225 min readSanta Rally Crushes Grinch Sentiment to End 2021 on a High
At the beginning of December, it looked like 2021 might be the year the Grinch would win as fears surrounding the virus and central bank tightening caused investors to rethink the buy-the-dip mentality that had persisted for the past 18 months. ...
Market Ethos
Macro Commentary
Dec 14 - 202125 min readPurpose 2022 Outlook: The Long Road Back to the New Normal
As the end of 2021 nears, it was clearly a win for investors. And while the pandemic retains it grip on humanity, overall, economies, companies, and behaviours have adapted relatively well. 2022 looks like it will be a more challenging and uncertain year, as some trends are poised to change....
Op-Ed
Macro Commentary
Dec 08 - 202110 min readIt’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Market Recap Time
In now what is a time-honoured two-year tradition here at Purpose, we recruited a handful of our favourite PMs and asked them to reflect on the year passed and what they anticipate for the year ahead....
Macro Commentary
Dec 07 - 20213 min readMarket Fatigue and A Look to 2022
After an amazing run for the last 18 months, the rate of change is beginning to slow, and it looks like the easier gains are behind us. For the month of November, markets spent most of the time at or near all-time highs, but there has been a notable increase in volatility....
Macro Commentary
Nov 02 - 202116 min readOctober Once Again Proved Volatile, This Time to the Upside
Heading into October, the mood of the market was very cautious. Everyone could recite the fears that would cause an imminent selloff, from earnings misses, to taper plans, to China tensions....
Macro Commentary
Oct 05 - 202112 min readWhy We’re Preparing for a Turbulent Year End
September has once again lived up to its reputation for volatility. In many ways this had to be expected as equity markets have experienced one of the longest runs of stable returns and minimal drawdowns in history...
Macro Commentary
Sep 07 - 20214 min readThe Danger Months Are Upon Us, Stay Defensive
Equity markets marched higher in August, closing at or near record highs on many indices. The S&P 500 finished higher for the seventh straight month as equity markets continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry....
Macro Commentary
Aug 05 - 20214 min readDelta Variant Concerns May Test the Bull Market
Bull markets can be strange animals. While they are being cheered on to new highs, they are incredibly overanalyzed as everyone is watching and waiting for them to end so they can hit the exit before others. ...
Macro Commentary
Jul 05 - 20215 min readFrom Meme Stocks to Supply Chains: Where Do We Go from Here?
The last 16 months will go down as one of the most volatile periods in investing history, but with markets back to all-time highs, it was also one of the most profitable for investors....
Macro Commentary
Jun 03 - 20215 min readInflation and the Path Forward for Financial Markets
This is where things get real. As everyone is settling into summer and ready to head to the lake, the next few months could shape the path forward for financial markets. ...
Macro Commentary
May 04 - 20215 min readSell in May and Go Away? It’s Not So Simple This Year
April lived up to its reputation as a positive month for equities. Many global indices hit all-time highs during the month, supported by a combination of record fiscal/monetary stimulus and optimism around the global economic recovery. ...
Macro Commentary
Apr 05 - 20214 min readBond Yields And Energy Stocks Surge As 2021 Rolls On
Global markets entered 2021 with a great deal of optimism. A new president came to Washington with a massive stimulus deal, positive vaccine news allowed for hope that the pandemic was nearing an end, and consumers who had been stuck at home for a year were ready to spend their savings. ...
Macro Commentary
Mar 03 - 20215 min readOld Fears are New Again as Yields March Higher
February may go down as the month that bond yields reached the level where they become a problem for the equity markets. Since the post-pandemic sell-off, the rally in equities has been accompanied by a move higher in yields....
Macro Commentary
Feb 03 - 20215 min readThe Retail Rally Holds Important Lessons
Is this the calm before the storm? Markets began 2021 with the sense of optimism that often comes with new beginnings. The scars of the previous year are still fresh, but sentiment amongst investors was near an all-time high as the calendar turned and remains largely intact now....
Macro Commentary
Jan 06 - 20217 min readA New Year demands a renewed commitment to focus
One lesson every investor learned in 2020 was that the stock market is NOT the economy...
Macro Commentary
Dec 02 - 20205 min readNovember Makes the Nice List, Sets Stage for a Positive 2021
In a year which has seen the word unprecedented used more than ever, the month of November lived up to that distinction. It will be remembered as one for the financial record books....
Macro Commentary
Nov 02 - 20205 min readMarkets need certainty more than a specific election winner
One of the most common expressions among investors is “stock markets hate uncertainty.” To prove the point, you don’t need to look much beyond the performance of equity markets for the month of October...
Macro Commentary
Oct 02 - 20205 min readDon't doze over the fourth quarter, this year has a few twists left
In 2004, Green Day released their Grammy-winning album American Idiot. The tone of the album is noticeably dark and speaks to some of the negative feelings in America towards the country and its government post 9/11 and the Iraq war...
Macro Commentary
Sep 02 - 20205 min readMarket euphoria persists as potential pivot points draw near
The month of August continued the odd action in capital markets that has become the hallmark of 2020...
Macro Commentary
Aug 04 - 20206 min readNo Rest for the Volatile
While the weather has improved and the dog days of summer are upon us, global markets have not calmed down at all...
Macro Commentary
Jul 07 - 20205 min readDon’t forget to stretch for the second half
2020 was never going to be a dull year...
Macro Commentary
Jun 02 - 20205 min readThree things to live by in the current market
With many stuck at home and sports on the sidelines due to the pandemic, it seems like trading the market has become the new pastime...
Macro Commentary
May 04 - 20204 min readSnapping Back into More Uncertainty
Markets rebounded impressively in April, posting one of their best months ever...
Macro Commentary
Apr 03 - 20206 min readStrong Medicine from Central Banks as Global Recession Hits Quickly
It’s almost inconceivable to think of what has occurred in March, both in social and market terms...
Macro Commentary
Mar 19 - 20205 min readTimes are tough, but people (and markets) are even tougher
The longest bull market in history has come to an end. And what a ride it was...
Macro Commentary
Mar 05 - 20205 min readCentral banks respond as volatility goes viral
After several weeks of concerning action in the bond and commodity markets, equities finally decided to take notice in the last week of February...
Macro Commentary
Feb 06 - 20204 min readVolatility returns, yet the market remains resilient
Well, does anyone miss last year yet? 2020 has certainly gotten off to a wild start...
Macro Commentary
Jan 07 - 20207 min readMy outlook for the New Year: Hindsight is always 2020
2019 was a year when almost everything worked....
Macro Commentary
Jan 03 - 20204 min readNew Year, New Market?
2019 was not a normal year for investing...
Macro Commentary
Dec 16 - 20194 min readNo sign of the Grinch… yet
Stock markets continued their grind higher through November and look to climb the ‘wall of worry’ into year end...
Macro Commentary
Oct 08 - 20194 min readUncertainty’s reign continues despite September’s stability
After a volatile August, equity markets stabilized post-Labour Day to move higher for the month...
Macro Commentary
Sep 09 - 20196 min readPurpose’s CIO: My Top Three Approaches For These Uncertain Markets.
Antagonistic presidential tweets, inverted yield curves, and trade wars. We’re experiencing uncertainty now like never before...
Macro Commentary
Aug 09 - 20195 min readOne tweet away from the unknown
The Federal Reserve cut its discount rate for the first time since 2008 at its July meeting...
Macro Commentary
Jul 04 - 20195 min readTwo hot stocks and a gold ingot walk into a bar...
Gold asks the two stocks, "where should I invest my money?" "Put it on scotch," the stocks say. "Where else can you get 40%?"...
Macro Commentary
Jun 06 - 20194 min readDefence wins championships (in sports and on the markets)
The risk of a trade war ultimately causing a global recession finally caught up...
Macro Commentary
May 07 - 20195 min readEquity markets may zigzag, but the path ahead should steady
Global equity markets continue to build on their strong start to the year and many averages are now at all-time highs...
Macro Commentary
Apr 04 - 20194 min readWhat’s dovishness got to do with it?
Equity markets marched higher for another month as global central banks reaffirmed their dovishness on interest rates...
Macro Commentary
Mar 21 - 20194 min readThe fed catches up to the market; what's next?
The Federal Reserve was already behind the market, prior to Wednesday’s meeting....
Macro Commentary
Mar 06 - 20194 min readMarkets march forward as central banks remain on the sidelines
Fears of a retest of the December lows have seemingly been pushed aside for now,...
Macro Commentary
Jan 15 - 20195 min readOh, Canada! A plan for 2019
The Canadian economy is forecast to expand by 2.1% in 2018, which is pretty much in the bag...
Macro Commentary
Apr 01 - 20245 min read